It is this: Today about 15 percent of the human race enjoys a western standard of living. But so sharply is the global curve of wealth rising that within 30 years or so, somewhere between 50 and 60 percent of the world's population will come to enjoy a western standard of living. Of course one can quibble over the numbers; the rise may take 40 years to accomplish, or it might level off at 45 percent of the world's population. On the other hand, the rise might take only 25 years to accomplish, or it may be that when the curve levels off again 65 or even 70 percent of the world's population will have crossed over the line. Obviously, it isn't possible to be very precise about this sort of mega-trendline. What is indisputable is that the curve of worldwide living standards has begun to rise at an unprecedented rate -- a rate that just a few years ago seemed unimaginable but now, absent some global catastrophe, nuclear or otherwise, is probably unstoppable.
The miracle is unfolding now because a critical mass has finally been reached. More precisely, throughout the world there is now a sufficient number of people who understand what it takes to make growth happen, who possess the skills and wherewithal to get the process started, and who are willing to pay the price required to succeed.
The best way to illustrate this phenomenon is with an analogy to something more familiar to most people, and certainly less off-putting, than macro-economics: physical fitness. When you understand how to get fit and stay in shape, you will understand all you need to know about the business of creating wealth. For there is a remarkable parallel between physical fitness and economic growth.
You say you want to get into shape? Good for you! Happily, we have reached that point when we actually know how to get fit and stay healthy. Forget all those nutty diets, and all that goofiness about achieving fitness through inner peace or regular bowel movements. Just eat sensibly -- fruits, vegetables, grains, lots of fish and chicken, not too much beef or pork. Avoid fats and high-cholesterol foods such as anything fried. And lay off those rich desserts -- at least, stay away from them most of the time; no problem at all if you eat out once a week and let yourself go, or if it's your birthday and you have two thick slices of cake.
Above all -- and this is the key to it -- you will need to exercise regularly and vigorously. Not every so often, not occasionally or when you've nothing better to do, but every day or several times a week as part of your living habit.
Do all this and you will be fit. Of course, not every body is the same so some people will be more muscular than others. Some will be able to eat french fries and ice cream twice a week without showing it; the rest of us will gain weight just by looking at the stuff. But generally, this regime will do it every time. It takes a bit of knowledge about what to do and what not to do, some skill for doing it -- preparing tasty meals, learning to jog, swim, play tennis or whatever your choice of exercise -- and the wherewithal to get started, such as a pair of running shoes or a rowing machine. Above all, it takes discipline. You will have to control yourself to stay away from the wrong foods and to stick with the right ones. And you will have to get your exercise regularly.
Can I help you get in shape and stay fit? Yes -- once you accept that this is the way to do it. But only a little. I can show you interesting ways to cook vegetables and fish that I've learned along the way. I can give you a pair of my running shoes to help you get started, or loan you the money for a rowing machine, if that's how you choose to work up a sweat each evening. And if getting into the habit of exercise is a problem, by all means join my jogging group. We meet every evening at 6pm and do two laps around the mall; you are more than welcome to come along.
But that's about it. That is all I can do for you. At this point, you are on your own. Don't call me up, tell me that you just wolfed down two cheeseburgers and a milkshake, and would I please jog three miles to burn off your extra calories. It doesn't work that way. For your sake, I hope you get into shape and stay fit. But if you won't make it happen for yourself -- if you won't take responsibility for your own health -- there is nothing I can do besides wishing you luck and setting an example you may one day choose to emulate.
Just as with physical fitness, we now know how to get a country in sound financial health, and how to keep a country in good shape so it can create more wealth for more and more of its citizens. After centuries of arguing, experimenting and trying every goofy approach imaginable, the issue has been resolved. Developing a country's economy takes a combination of political democracy, a reliance on free enterprise and free markets, low taxation, minimum regulation and free trade. This combination has never failed; nothing else has ever worked. (The only variable seems to be political democracy. Chile and Taiwan made their moves while still at the stage of relatively benign authoritarianism. But in both cases the tendency was toward democracy, and, equally important, the public authorities disciplined themselves against undue intrusion into the economy.)
Just like getting in shape and staying that way, economic development requires a fair bit of knowledge, some technical skills and start-up wherewithal, and a lot of discipline to stay on course. That's it. There isn't anything else.
This knowledge, or more accurately the widespread acceptance of this knowledge, is a recent thing. When I was a college student 30 years ago, in New York City, those of us majoring in political science or economics spent countless hours studying and talking about the mystery of economic development. Our seminars and textbooks were more theoretical, and more abstract, than those of our colleagues studying quantum mechanics. Indeed, students of the hard sciences always seemed more optimistic than we were; their professors assured them that the mysteries of the universe one day would be solved, perhaps even by them. Our professors in the departments of political science and economics were a depressed and depressing bunch; they believed the process of development was too mystifying ever to truly understand.
There was capitalism, communism, socialism and all sorts of middle ways that supposedly took the best features from each approach and melded them into something new and wonderful. Our discussions, both in class and in the student cafeteria, were long, intense and filled with jargon that was more confusing than enlightening. (One afternoon a bunch of us were sitting in the cafeteria talking importantly about all this when an exchange student -- he was from somewhere in eastern Africa, I think Tanzania -- leaned over and asked if I didn't find the Swedish model attractive. My mind must have been elsewhere; I replied that I hadn't met her because, unfortunately, she wasn't in any of my classes. That exchange student is probably a cabinet minister now, and I hope when he tells this story to his aides he points out there was at least one student at Brooklyn College who had his priorities straight.)
The intellectual argument over economic development is over. We don't know everything about economics, but we know this: only free enterprise works, when backed by low taxation, minimum regulation, and free trade. The other approaches and isms are worthless; we've tried them all, and they've all flopped. No doubt there are some people who refuse to accept this knowledge, just as there are some who continue to insist, despite all evidence, that the earth is flat. But among serious people the debate is finished. Anyone who isn't clinically insane knows the earth is round; so, too, anyone who isn't blinded by ideology or just plain full of baloney knows what works in economics and what does not.
Today in more and more countries, there is a critical mass of leaders who know how to make growth happen. They have both the general knowledge and the specific skills required. Moreover, in the form of both public and private sector loans, their countries have been able to acquire from the West sufficient wherewithal -- seed capital -- to get the process started. And their populations apparently have the discipline to stay on course. Of course there are variations from one country to another, and of course no country does it perfectly all the time. But the pattern is unmistakable, and visible to anyone willing to take an honest look at the world.
Look at Hong Kong, South Korea, Thailand and Taiwan. Look at Indonesia, Chile and Brazil. Singapore is an economic knock-out, and Malaysia is closing in fast. The Czech Republic is booming, the Philippines is starting to shape up, and keep your eye on -- I kid you not -- Jordan, whose economy now is growing at an annual rate of 6 percent. Are there differences among the policies and approaches of all these countries? Of course there are, just as there are differences in the ways that healthy people stay in shape. But the similarities are more striking than the differences, and that's the point.
The question now is whether other countries -- members of the so-called Third World -- will follow in the path that these superstars are blazing. There is growing reason for hope. For one thing, it turns out that there is such a thing as human nature -- large-scale patterns of behavior found in all societies, albeit with minor variations, to the extent that one cannot escape the conclusion that this is what human beings truly are like. It may drive the Marxists and the feminist extremists nuts, but the sociobiologists are right; there really are natural patterns of behavior that have nothing to do with nurture, and that environmental conditioning cannot alter.